Fortaleza EC 0-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Flamengo at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortaleza EC at 1.60 PPG versus Flamengo's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Flamengo 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 45% versus Flamengo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 40% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.56 xG and Flamengo 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.094 / defence 0.967 | Flamengo attack 1.221 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.096. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Fortaleza EC games / 68 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 43% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 31%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Flamengo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortaleza EC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 50% | Flamengo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 43% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.56 / Flamengo 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.094 / def 0.967 | Flamengo attack 1.221 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Flamengo xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 43% chance of winning, Flamengo a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
Record (5 meetings): Fortaleza EC 2W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 3W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.09) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.87
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.29
Flamengo xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.29 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortaleza EC's recent record stands at 27W 16D 24L from 67 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 20L across 67 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.45 PPG, Flamengo on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortaleza EC have managed 15W 12D 6L from 33 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 14W 8D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.54 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 16D 24L in their last 67 games (1.45 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 32W 15D 20L in their last 67 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Flamengo away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.73 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 4, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 42%, Flamengo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Fortaleza EC) and 61% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 67% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 61% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Fortaleza EC 0-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.56 xG and Flamengo 1.29 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Flamengo attack 1.22 / defence 1.03, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 43% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 31%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 40%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.45 PPG, Flamengo 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.