Fortaleza EC 0-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortaleza EC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Paranaense (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atletico Paranaense's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Fortaleza EC have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Atletico Paranaense in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortaleza EC lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 40% versus Atletico Paranaense 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 45% | Atletico Paranaense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.92 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.691 / defence 1.017 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.029 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 0.996. Fortaleza EC's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Fortaleza EC games / 48 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 30% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 37%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Atletico Paranaense 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 20% | Atletico Paranaense 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 30% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Fortaleza EC 0.92 / Atletico Paranaense 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.691 / def 1.017 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.029 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.262 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Atletico Paranaense xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 12 June 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 30% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (2 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fortaleza EC's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Atletico Paranaense's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.03x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
30%
3.33
33%
2.99
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.96
1.04
Atletico Paranaense xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.7 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.04 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortaleza EC's recent record stands at 17W 7D 14L from 38 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 17L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.24 for Atletico Paranaense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fortaleza EC have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.08 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.95 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 3-0 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
4
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 32% (Fortaleza EC) and 37% (Atletico Paranaense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fortaleza EC) and 42% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 26% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 42% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Fortaleza EC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Paranaense finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.92 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.04 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Atletico Paranaense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.69 / defence 1.02 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 30% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 37%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 45%, Atletico Paranaense 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.53 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.