Fluminense vs Mirassol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 6W 3D 1L at — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fluminense have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Mirassol in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Mirassol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Mirassol — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 54% versus Mirassol 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 44% | Mirassol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.73 xG and Mirassol 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.126 / defence 0.944 | Mirassol attack 0.799 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.169. Data: 63 Fluminense games / 63 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 55% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 17%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Mirassol 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 80% | Mirassol 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 55% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Fluminense 1.73 / Mirassol 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.126 / def 0.944 | Mirassol attack 0.799 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Mirassol xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Mirassol kick off?
Fluminense vs Mirassol is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Fluminense vs Mirassol part of?
Fluminense vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 55% chance of winning, Mirassol a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fluminense and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 2W.
What form are Fluminense and Mirassol in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.13x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.80x) against Fluminense's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.55
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.61
0.88
Mirassol xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
3%
33.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.88 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense's recent record stands at 30W 16D 17L from 63 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 19L across 63 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Fluminense against 1.46 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 23W 4D 4L from 31 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mirassol's away record stands at 7W 9D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.43 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 30W 16D 17L in their last 63 games (1.68 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 24W 20D 19L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Mirassol away?
Fluminense's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.35 PPG; Mirassol away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mirassol in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Fluminense
0
Draws
2
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 1, Mirassol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mirassol 1-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 52%, Mirassol 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fluminense) and 36% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Mirassol in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Fluminense's recent matches and 52% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fluminense's recent games and 36% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Mirassol tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.