Fluminense 0-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense at this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fluminense are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Bahia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bahia have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Fluminense, 1.10 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fluminense have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bahia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 52% versus Bahia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 43% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.75 xG and Bahia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.140 / defence 1.005 | Bahia attack 1.039 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.114. Data: 58 Fluminense games / 58 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 49% | Draw 27% | Bahia 24%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Bahia 4.17. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 80% | Bahia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Jul 2026, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 49% | Draw 27% | Bahia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Fluminense 1.75 / Bahia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.140 / def 1.005 | Bahia attack 1.039 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bahia xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Bahia kick off?
Fluminense vs Bahia kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 30 July 2026.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Fluminense 0 - 0 Bahia.
What competition is Fluminense vs Bahia part of?
Fluminense vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 49% chance of winning, Bahia a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fluminense and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
Record (9 meetings): Fluminense 4W | Draws 2 | Bahia 3W.
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Bahia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Fluminense vs Bahia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.14x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.04x) against Fluminense's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.75
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.91
1.16
Bahia xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
4%
24.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.16 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 28W 13D 17L from 58 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 17L across 58 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Fluminense against 1.57 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 21W 3D 4L from 28 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bahia's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 28W 13D 17L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while Bahia have gone 25W 16D 17L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Bahia away?
Fluminense's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.36 PPG; Bahia away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bahia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Bahia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Bahia?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Bahia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fluminense) and 54% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bahia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 57% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fluminense's recent games and 54% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Bahia tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bahia in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fluminense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense and Bahia finished level at 0-0 at , Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.75 xG and Bahia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fluminense fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bahia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Bahia attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 49% | Draw 27% | Bahia 24%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 43%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.67 PPG, Bahia 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.