Fluminense 2-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host America Mineiro at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
America Mineiro's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour America Mineiro — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fluminense register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, America Mineiro in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 0, America Mineiro 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with America Mineiro winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus America Mineiro 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 30% | America Mineiro 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.21 xG and America Mineiro 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.007 / defence 1.059 | America Mineiro attack 1.055 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 0.936. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Fluminense games / 33 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 40% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 32%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | America Mineiro 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form America Mineiro (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Fluminense 60% | America Mineiro 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 40% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Fluminense 1.21 / America Mineiro 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.007 / def 1.059 | America Mineiro attack 1.055 / def 1.245 | league avg home 0.966 / away 0.936 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.05
America Mineiro xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs America Mineiro kick off?
Fluminense vs America Mineiro kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Fluminense 2 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Fluminense vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs America Mineiro part of?
Fluminense vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 40% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fluminense and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Fluminense and America Mineiro in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.01) and America Mineiro's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.50
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.26
1.05
America Mineiro xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fluminense and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.05 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fluminense come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 9D 12L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (11W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.36 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fluminense's home form reads 8W 5D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.06 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 11W 12D 10L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or America Mineiro away?
Fluminense's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.81 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Fluminense or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and America Mineiro runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Fluminense won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, America Mineiro have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Fluminense 3-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, America Mineiro 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Fluminense and 31% for America Mineiro.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; America Mineiro in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 56% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Fluminense's recent games and 31% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat America Mineiro 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.21 xG and America Mineiro 1.05 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. America Mineiro landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against America Mineiro attack 1.05 / defence 1.25, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 40% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 32%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 30%, America Mineiro 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
America Mineiro's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.36 PPG, America Mineiro 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.