Flamengo 3-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Sao Paulo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sao Paulo have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sao Paulo's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Flamengo at 1.80 PPG versus Sao Paulo's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Flamengo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Sao Paulo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Sao Paulo 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.43 xG and Sao Paulo 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.044 / defence 0.938 | Sao Paulo attack 0.938 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 0.885. Data: 39 Flamengo games / 39 Sao Paulo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 20%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Sao Paulo 5.00. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 20% | Sao Paulo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Flamengo 1.43 / Sao Paulo 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.044 / def 0.938 | Sao Paulo attack 0.938 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.408 / away 0.885 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Sao Paulo xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Flamengo vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?
Flamengo 3 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Flamengo vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Sao Paulo part of?
Flamengo vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 52% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Flamengo and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Sao Paulo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Sao Paulo in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.04) and Sao Paulo's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.69
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.21
0.78
Sao Paulo xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
5%
20.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.78 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 8D 9L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (11W 15D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Flamengo's home form reads 13W 1D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 0.82 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Sao Paulo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 11W 15D 12L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Sao Paulo away?
Flamengo's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.11 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
3
Draws
3
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Sao Paulo?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Sao Paulo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Flamengo 1-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Sao Paulo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Flamengo 32% BTTS, Sao Paulo 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Flamengo and 21% for Sao Paulo.
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Flamengo have failed to score in 26% of games; Sao Paulo in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Flamengo's recent matches and 37% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 21% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sao Paulo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Sao Paulo 3-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.43 xG and Sao Paulo 0.78 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Sao Paulo attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 20%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Sao Paulo 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.