Flamengo 6-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Flamengo welcome Juventude to Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Thursday 17 April 2025 at 02:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Flamengo have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Juventude stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Juventude away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Flamengo's games and 80% of Juventude's (from Flamengo's last 10 home games and Juventude's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Juventude and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Flamengo 4–2 Juventude — a Flamengo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Juventude trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Flamengo 66% and Juventude 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Juventude 53%). Note also that Juventude surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Flamengo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 100% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.57 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.039 / defence 1.058 | Juventude attack 0.954 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 0.953. Data: built from Flamengo's last 41 games and Juventude's last 41.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Juventude 21%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.04 | Draw 3.30 | Juventude 4.82. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Flamengo 60% (last 10 home games) | Juventude 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Thursday 17 April 2025 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Juventude 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Flamengo 1.57 / Juventude 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.039 / def 1.058 | Juventude attack 0.954 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.363 / away 0.953 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Juventude xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Juventude FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Juventude kick off?
Flamengo vs Juventude kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Thursday 17 April 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Juventude?
Flamengo 6 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Flamengo vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Juventude part of?
Flamengo vs Juventude is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 49% chance of winning, Juventude a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Flamengo and Juventude will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Flamengo vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 41 games and Juventude's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.30
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.53
0.96
Juventude xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
23.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Juventude Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.96 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 20W 10D 8L from 38 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 15L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 11W 5D 3L from their last 19 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventude's away record stands at 3W 6D 10L across their last 19 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.26 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Flamengo have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Juventude in 71%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Juventude (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Juventude Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Juventude in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 20W 10D 8L in their last 38 games (1.84 PPG), while Juventude have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Juventude away?
Flamengo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.00 PPG; Juventude away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Flamengo have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Apr 2025, when Flamengo won Flamengo 6-0 Juventude.
Flamengo's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Flamengo
1
Draws
2
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Juventude H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Juventude?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 5, Juventude have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Juventude last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2025: Juventude 0-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Juventude?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Flamengo at 68%, Juventude at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Flamengo) and 58% (Juventude). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Juventude Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Juventude matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Flamengo's games and 79% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Flamengo and Juventude matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Flamengo's matches and 58% of Juventude's.
Do Flamengo and Juventude matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Flamengo's recent matches and 74% of Juventude's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Juventude 6-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.57 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juventude landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Juventude attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Juventude 21%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.