Flamengo 3-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Gremio travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 June 2023, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gremio haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gremio have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Flamengo 1.70 PPG, Gremio 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Flamengo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Gremio in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Flamengo, 1 for Gremio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Flamengo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Gremio in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 55% versus Gremio 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Gremio 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.84 xG and Gremio 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.088 / defence 0.898 | Gremio attack 0.966 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.097. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Flamengo games / 9 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 28% | Gremio 16%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Gremio 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 70% | Gremio 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 28% | Gremio 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Flamengo 1.84 / Gremio 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.088 / def 0.898 | Gremio attack 0.966 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Gremio xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Gremio kick off?
Flamengo vs Gremio kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Gremio?
Flamengo 3 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Flamengo vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Gremio part of?
Flamengo vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 55% chance of winning, Gremio a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Flamengo and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Gremio?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Gremio in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Gremio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.09) and Gremio's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.52
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.79
0.95
Gremio xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
38.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.95 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 8D 12L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (12W 7D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. Gremio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Gremio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Flamengo's home form reads 11W 3D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (4W 1D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.16 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Gremio in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Gremio have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Gremio away?
Flamengo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.89 PPG; Gremio away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when Flamengo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Gremio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gremio 0-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Gremio?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 47%, Gremio 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Flamengo) and 37% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Gremio in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Flamengo's recent matches and 42% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Flamengo's recent games and 37% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Gremio tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Gremio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Gremio 3-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.84 xG and Gremio 0.95 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.09 / defence 0.90 against Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 55% | Draw 28% | Gremio 16%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Gremio 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.