Flamengo 1-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 June 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fortaleza EC have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fortaleza EC's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Flamengo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Flamengo's 20% rate and Fortaleza EC's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 2, Fortaleza EC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Flamengo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Fortaleza EC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Fortaleza EC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.45 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.942 / defence 0.813 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.886 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 0.944. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Flamengo games / 46 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 56% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 18%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Fortaleza EC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 20% | Fortaleza EC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jun 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 56% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Flamengo 1.45 / Fortaleza EC 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.942 / def 0.813 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.886 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.273 / away 0.944 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Fortaleza EC xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 5 June 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Flamengo 1 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 56% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Flamengo and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Fortaleza EC in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.72
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.12
0.68
Fortaleza EC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
4%
24.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.68 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 8D 9L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Fortaleza EC sit at 1.53 PPG from 38 outings (17W 7D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.87 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Flamengo's home form reads 13W 1D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortaleza EC have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.16 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Fortaleza EC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Flamengo's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.11 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
1
Draws
4
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Fortaleza EC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 32%, Fortaleza EC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 47% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Flamengo have failed to score in 26% of games; Fortaleza EC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Flamengo's recent matches and 47% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 47% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Flamengo 1-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.45 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.68 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 56% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 18%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Fortaleza EC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.87 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.