Flamengo 2-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Flamengo face Cruzeiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Flamengo and Cruzeiro meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Current Form
Flamengo's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cruzeiro (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cruzeiro's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Flamengo's last 10 home games and Cruzeiro's last 10 away games) — Flamengo have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cruzeiro in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Flamengo edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2023, ended Flamengo 2–0 Cruzeiro — a Flamengo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Flamengo — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Cruzeiro 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Cruzeiro 29%). Note also that Cruzeiro surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Flamengo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.56 xG and Cruzeiro 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.061 / defence 0.962 | Cruzeiro attack 0.717 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.074. Cruzeiro's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Flamengo's last 50 games and Cruzeiro's last 49.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 16%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.81 | Draw 3.45 | Cruzeiro 6.31. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (55%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Flamengo's last 10 home games and Cruzeiro's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Flamengo 30% (last 10 home games) | Cruzeiro 0% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 30 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Flamengo 1.56 / Cruzeiro 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.061 / def 0.962 | Cruzeiro attack 0.717 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cruzeiro xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Flamengo 2 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Flamengo vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Cruzeiro part of?
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 55% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Flamengo and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Flamengo vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.72x) against Flamengo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 50 games and Cruzeiro's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
55%
1.81
29%
3.45
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.30
0.74
Cruzeiro xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
3%
30.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.74 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Flamengo come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 9D 10L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (11W 14D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Flamengo's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across their last 19 home games, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 19 away games (7W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.92 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro in 29%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Cruzeiro in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 11W 14D 13L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Cruzeiro away?
Flamengo's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.84 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
2
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cruzeiro?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 4, Cruzeiro have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Cruzeiro 2-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Cruzeiro?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (Flamengo) and 21% (Cruzeiro) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Flamengo) and 37% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 53%; Cruzeiro in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Cruzeiro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Flamengo's recent matches and 21% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and Cruzeiro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Flamengo's recent games and 37% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Cruzeiro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Flamengo's recent matches and 42% of Cruzeiro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Cruzeiro 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Cruzeiro 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.56 xG and Cruzeiro 0.74 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Cruzeiro attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 55% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 16%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Cruzeiro 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.