Flamengo 1-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Flamengo (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Flamengo face America Mineiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 22 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
America Mineiro have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Flamengo's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Flamengo are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Flamengo winning.
The historical record gives Flamengo a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 54% versus America Mineiro 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 56% | America Mineiro 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.35 xG and America Mineiro 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.256 / defence 0.801 | America Mineiro attack 1.093 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.975. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Flamengo games / 52 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 70% | Draw 19% | America Mineiro 11%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | America Mineiro 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 50% | America Mineiro 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 70% | Draw 19% | America Mineiro 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Flamengo 2.35 / America Mineiro 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.256 / def 0.801 | America Mineiro attack 1.093 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.85
America Mineiro xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs America Mineiro kick off?
Flamengo vs America Mineiro kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Flamengo 1 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Flamengo vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs America Mineiro part of?
Flamengo vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 70% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Flamengo and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
Record (4 meetings): Flamengo 3W | Draws 1 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Flamengo and America Mineiro in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (1.09x) against Flamengo's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.38
11%
8.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Flamengo xG
Total xG
3.20
0.85
America Mineiro xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
8.83
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
10%
10.45
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
92.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.85 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 26W 10D 16L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
America Mineiro's form line: 17W 11D 24L from 52 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against America Mineiro.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 2.00 PPG from 26 outings (16W 4D 6L).
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 6W 6D 14L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 26W 10D 16L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or America Mineiro away?
Flamengo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.00 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Flamengo or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
0
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, America Mineiro have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when America Mineiro 0-3 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 42%, America Mineiro 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Flamengo) and 54% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; America Mineiro in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Flamengo's recent games and 54% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo and America Mineiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo and America Mineiro finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.35 xG and America Mineiro 0.85 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.26 / defence 0.80 against America Mineiro attack 1.09 / defence 1.41, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 70% | Draw 19% | America Mineiro 11%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 56%, America Mineiro 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
America Mineiro's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.