Cuiaba 0-2 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 2 November 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cuiaba's home record at Arena Pantanal: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.50 for Vasco DA Gama. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cuiaba, 1 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 37% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 37% | Vasco DA Gama 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.36 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.851 / defence 0.898 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.721 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.109. Data: 68 Cuiaba games / 30 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 51% | Draw 30% | Vasco DA Gama 19%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Vasco DA Gama 5.26. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 40% | Vasco DA Gama 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 51% | Draw 30% | Vasco DA Gama 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Cuiaba 1.36 / Vasco DA Gama 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.851 / def 0.898 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.721 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Vasco DA Gama xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 2 November 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Cuiaba 0 - 2 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 51% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.85x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.72x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.38
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.08
0.72
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
5%
20.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.72 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 11W 7D 12L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 15L across 30 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.03 for Vasco DA Gama. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 2W 5D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.20 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Vasco DA Gama have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
0
Draws
4
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama?
From 4 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 47%, Vasco DA Gama 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cuiaba) and 33% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 33% of games; Vasco DA Gama in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Cuiaba's games and 67% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cuiaba's recent games and 33% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Cuiaba 0-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.36 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.72 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 51% | Draw 30% | Vasco DA Gama 19%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 37%, Vasco DA Gama 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.33 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.