Cuiaba 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host RB Bragantino at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
RB Bragantino's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cuiaba) versus 1.00 (RB Bragantino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cuiaba have won 1, RB Bragantino 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus RB Bragantino 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 34% | RB Bragantino 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.99 xG and RB Bragantino 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.755 / defence 0.907 | RB Bragantino attack 0.977 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 0.988. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Cuiaba games / 48 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 30%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | RB Bragantino 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Cuiaba 0.99 / RB Bragantino 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.755 / def 0.907 | RB Bragantino attack 0.977 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.283 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.88
RB Bragantino xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 11 June 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Cuiaba 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino part of?
Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 36% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Cuiaba and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and RB Bragantino?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and RB Bragantino in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
36%
2.75
33%
3.00
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.86
0.88
RB Bragantino xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.6 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.88 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 17D 11L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.47 PPG from 38 outings (14W 14D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.24 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cuiaba's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.45 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or RB Bragantino away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.42 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and RB Bragantino runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cuiaba's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
5
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and RB Bragantino?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cuiaba) and 53% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; RB Bragantino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cuiaba's recent games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 11, as Cuiaba and RB Bragantino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.99 xG and RB Bragantino 0.88 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.76 / defence 0.91 against RB Bragantino attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 36% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 30%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, RB Bragantino 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.