Cuiaba 2-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Cuiaba welcome Botafogo to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Botafogo — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's away record: 4W 2D 2L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cuiaba 0.90 PPG, Botafogo 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 47% versus Botafogo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 27% | Botafogo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.95 xG and Botafogo 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.719 / defence 0.846 | Botafogo attack 1.045 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.963. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Cuiaba games / 15 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 34% | Botafogo 30%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Botafogo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 40% | Botafogo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 34% | Botafogo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Cuiaba 0.95 / Botafogo 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.719 / def 0.846 | Botafogo attack 1.045 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.963 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Botafogo xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Botafogo kick off?
Cuiaba vs Botafogo kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Cuiaba 2 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Cuiaba vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Botafogo part of?
Cuiaba vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 36% chance of winning, Botafogo a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cuiaba and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Botafogo in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Botafogo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
36%
2.80
34%
2.92
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.81
0.85
Botafogo xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.85 for Botafogo, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 4W 4D 7L from 15 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 6L across 15 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.07 PPG, Botafogo on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Botafogo's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.13 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.00 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cuiaba's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cuiaba
1
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 3, Botafogo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Botafogo 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 43%, Botafogo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Cuiaba and 29% for Botafogo.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 43% of games; Botafogo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 43% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Cuiaba's recent games and 29% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cuiaba cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Botafogo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Botafogo 2-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.95 xG and Botafogo 0.85 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cuiaba beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Botafogo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.72 / defence 0.85 against Botafogo attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 36% | Draw 34% | Botafogo 30%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 27%, Botafogo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Botafogo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.07 PPG, Botafogo 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.