Coritiba 1-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ceara make the trip to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to face Coritiba in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 September 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Coritiba (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's home record at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ceara have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coritiba lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ceara half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 44% versus Ceara 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Coritiba 44% | Ceara 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.92 xG and Ceara 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.861 / defence 1.057 | Ceara attack 1.011 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 0.899. Data: 27 Coritiba games / 65 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 33% | Draw 32% | Ceara 35%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Ceara 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ceara if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 40% | Ceara 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Sep 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 33% | Draw 32% | Ceara 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Coritiba 0.92 / Ceara 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.861 / def 1.057 | Ceara attack 1.011 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.293 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Ceara (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ceara xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Ceara kick off?
Coritiba vs Ceara kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 28 September 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Ceara?
Coritiba 1 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Coritiba vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Ceara part of?
Coritiba vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 33% chance of winning, Ceara a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Coritiba and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Ceara?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 1 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Coritiba and Ceara in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Ceara (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.86x the league average against Ceara's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (1.01x) against Coritiba's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
33%
3.03
32%
3.13
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Coritiba xG
Total xG
1.89
0.96
Ceara xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.96 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coritiba come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 4D 15L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ceara sit at 1.15 PPG from 27 outings (6W 13D 8L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Coritiba against 1.15 for Ceara. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Coritiba's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ceara have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (3W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coritiba are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 0.96 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Ceara in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 8W 4D 15L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Ceara have gone 6W 13D 8L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Ceara away?
Coritiba's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.77 PPG; Ceara away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Ceara?
From 2 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Ceara have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2022, when Coritiba 1-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Ceara?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 38%, Ceara 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Coritiba and 23% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ceara in 31%; Ceara in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Coritiba's recent matches and 54% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Coritiba's recent games and 23% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Ceara tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ceara in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Ceara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Ceara 1-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.92 xG and Ceara 0.96 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ceara landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Ceara attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 33% | Draw 32% | Ceara 35%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 44%, Ceara 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Ceara's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.04 PPG, Ceara 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.