Corinthians 3-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Corinthians at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Neo Química Arena plays host to Corinthians versus Vasco DA Gama in Serie A (matchday 35). Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Corinthians have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Corinthians have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Corinthians's favour (2.20 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Corinthians, 1 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Jul 2024, ended Corinthians 0–2 Vasco DA Gama — a Vasco DA Gama win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 54% versus Vasco DA Gama 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 42% | Vasco DA Gama 42%). Note also that Vasco DA Gama surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Corinthians recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 2.29 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.392 / defence 1.049 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.758 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.993. Corinthians carry an above-average attack rating of 1.392 — their 2.29 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Vasco DA Gama's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Corinthians's projected output up. Vasco DA Gama's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Corinthians's last 72 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 72.
Result probabilities: Corinthians 71% | Draw 18% | Vasco DA Gama 11%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.41 | Draw 5.59 | Vasco DA Gama 8.96. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (71%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Corinthians at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Corinthians's last 10 home games and Vasco DA Gama's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Corinthians 80% (last 10 home games) | Vasco DA Gama 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 71% | Draw 18% | Vasco DA Gama 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Corinthians 2.29 / Vasco DA Gama 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.392 / def 1.049 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.758 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Vasco DA Gama xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama FAQs
What time does Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Corinthians 3 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 71% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Corinthians's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Vasco DA Gama's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.76x) against Corinthians's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Corinthians's last 72 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.59
11%
8.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Corinthians xG
Total xG
3.07
0.79
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
8.96
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
10%
9.83
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
1%
88.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.79 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 23W 25D 24L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Vasco DA Gama's form line: 24W 16D 32L from 72 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Corinthians against 1.22 for Vasco DA Gama. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 36 home games (14W 18D 4L).
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 6W 10D 20L from their last 36 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Corinthians are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.07 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Corinthians (Home) vs Vasco DA Gama (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Corinthians
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama Form FAQs
What form are Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 23W 25D 24L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 24W 16D 32L in their last 72 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Corinthians's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.67 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Corinthians won Corinthians 3-0 Vasco DA Gama on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Corinthians
0
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Corinthians have won 6, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 69%, Vasco DA Gama 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Corinthians) and 39% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Corinthians's games and 50% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Corinthians's recent games and 39% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Corinthians's recent matches and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Vasco DA Gama 3-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 2.29 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.79 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.39 / defence 1.05 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.76 / defence 1.24, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 71% | Draw 18% | Vasco DA Gama 11%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 42%, Vasco DA Gama 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.31 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.