Chapecoense-sc 0-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc host Palmeiras at Arena Condá in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's home record at Arena Condá: 0W 2D 7L from 9 Serie A appearances (0.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 1D 3L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chapecoense-sc, 1 for Palmeiras and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2021, ended 1–3 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chapecoense-sc 68% and Palmeiras 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 47% | Palmeiras 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.70 xG and Palmeiras 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.729 / defence 1.473 | Palmeiras attack 0.919 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 0.871 / away 1.085. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Chapecoense-sc games / 19 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 16% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 54%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 6.25 | Draw 3.33 | Palmeiras 1.85. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 44% | Palmeiras 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 16% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.70 / Palmeiras 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.729 / def 1.473 | Palmeiras attack 0.919 / def 1.101 | league avg home 0.871 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Palmeiras xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 16% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 54% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chapecoense-sc's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
16%
6.17
30%
3.37
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.17
1.47
Palmeiras xG
6.17
16%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
4%
26.79
27%
3.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 16.8 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.47 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Chapecoense-sc have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 1W 7D 11L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 11W 2D 6L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0.25 PPG from 8 outings (0W 2D 6L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.58 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 7D 11L in their last 19 games (0.53 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 11W 2D 6L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.25 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Palmeiras have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 50%, Palmeiras 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chapecoense-sc) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 50%; Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 50% of games; Palmeiras in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 25% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Chapecoense-sc 0-2 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.70 xG and Palmeiras 1.47 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.73 / defence 1.47 against Palmeiras attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 16% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 54%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 47%, Palmeiras 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.