Ceara 3-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ceara at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 August 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ceara 1.50 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Ceara trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fortaleza EC trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 54% versus Fortaleza EC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 38% | Fortaleza EC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.05 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 1.160 / defence 1.119 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.787 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 0.878 / away 1.050. Data: 13 Ceara games / 13 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 38% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 31%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Fortaleza EC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 67% | Fortaleza EC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 38% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ceara 1.05 / Fortaleza EC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 1.160 / def 1.119 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.787 / def 1.033 | league avg home 0.878 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Ceara (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fortaleza EC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Ceara vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Ceara 3 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Ceara vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 38% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ceara and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Fortaleza EC in?
Ceara (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ceara's attack rating (1.16) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.23
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.98
0.93
Fortaleza EC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Ceara and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ceara and 0.93 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ceara's recent record stands at 4W 7D 2L from 13 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 2L across 13 games — 2.08 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortaleza EC by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ceara heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ceara have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ceara are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.62 scored and 0.69 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Fortaleza EC in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 4W 7D 2L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 8W 3D 2L in their last 13 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Ceara's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 2.17 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ceara or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Fortaleza EC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Nov 2021, when Ceara won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ceara's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ceara
1
Draws
1
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 4, Fortaleza EC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2025, when Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 67%, Fortaleza EC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ceara) and 50% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 50%; Fortaleza EC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Fortaleza EC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ceara's games and 50% of Fortaleza EC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ceara's recent games and 50% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ceara cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Fortaleza EC 3-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.05 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.93 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 1.16 / defence 1.12 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 38% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 31%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 38%, Fortaleza EC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with Ceara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.