Ceara 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fluminense at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Monday 31 October 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ceara — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fluminense are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ceara, 1 for Fluminense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ceara in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fluminense in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 54% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 35% | Fluminense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.03 xG and Fluminense 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.808 / defence 1.102 | Fluminense attack 1.265 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 0.985. Fluminense have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Ceara games / 72 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 28% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 45%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 2.22. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 60% | Fluminense 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 28% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Ceara 1.03 / Fluminense 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.808 / def 1.102 | Fluminense attack 1.265 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.299 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Fluminense xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Fluminense kick off?
Ceara vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 31 October 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Fluminense?
Ceara 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Ceara vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Fluminense part of?
Ceara vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 28% chance of winning, Fluminense a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ceara and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fluminense?
Record (3 meetings): Ceara 1W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Ceara and Fluminense in?
Ceara (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.81) and Fluminense's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
28%
3.54
27%
3.69
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.41
1.37
Fluminense xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ceara and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Ceara and 1.37 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ceara come into this having played 72 games, going 17W 33D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Fluminense sit at 1.56 PPG from 72 outings (32W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.17 PPG, Fluminense on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ceara's home form reads 13W 15D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Fluminense have taken 1.14 points per game from 36 outings (11W 8D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Ceara are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.29 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 17W 33D 22L in their last 72 games (1.17 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 32W 16D 24L in their last 72 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Fluminense away?
Ceara's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.50 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ceara or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ceara's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ceara
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fluminense?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 2, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Ceara 2-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 58%, Fluminense 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Ceara) and 39% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ceara's recent matches and 39% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ceara's recent games and 39% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Fluminense tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Ceara 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Ceara 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.03 xG and Fluminense 1.37 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ceara fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Fluminense attack 1.26 / defence 0.99, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 28% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 45%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 35%, Fluminense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.17 PPG, Fluminense 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.