Ceara 0-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 42%, yet in-form Atletico Paranaense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ceara host Atletico Paranaense at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ceara — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atletico Paranaense — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ceara have won 1, Atletico Paranaense 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ceara in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 54% versus Atletico Paranaense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 36% | Atletico Paranaense 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.30 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.824 / defence 1.083 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.086 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 0.905. Data: 61 Ceara games / 61 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 42% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 30%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Atletico Paranaense 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Paranaense (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 60% | Atletico Paranaense 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 42% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Ceara 1.30 / Atletico Paranaense 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.824 / def 1.083 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.086 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.326 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Ceara (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Atletico Paranaense xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Ceara 0 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 42% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ceara and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (3 meetings): Ceara 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 2W.
What form are Ceara and Atletico Paranaense in?
Ceara (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.82) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.62
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.37
1.06
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
8%
12.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ceara and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ceara and 1.06 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Ceara have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 16W 28D 17L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense's form line: 24W 13D 24L from 61 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.25 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ceara have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (12W 12D 6L).
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 9W 4D 17L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ceara are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.15 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 16W 28D 17L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 24W 13D 24L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Ceara's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.60 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Ceara or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Atletico Paranaense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ceara's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ceara
1
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico Paranaense?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Ceara 0-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 57%, Atletico Paranaense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ceara) and 43% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ceara's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ceara's recent games and 43% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ceara's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 24, as Ceara and Atletico Paranaense drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.30 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.06 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ceara fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Atletico Paranaense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.09 / defence 1.19, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 42% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 30%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 36%, Atletico Paranaense 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.25 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.