Botafogo 1-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Botafogo welcome Palmeiras to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Thursday 18 July 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Botafogo at 2.30 PPG versus Palmeiras's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 1, Palmeiras 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2023, ended 3–4 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 52% versus Palmeiras 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 44% | Palmeiras 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.53 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.206 / defence 0.846 | Palmeiras attack 1.244 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.072. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Botafogo games / 54 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 26%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 3.85. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 60% | Palmeiras 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Jul 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Botafogo 1.53 / Palmeiras 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.206 / def 0.846 | Palmeiras attack 1.244 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palmeiras xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Botafogo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 18 July 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Botafogo 1 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Botafogo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Palmeiras part of?
Botafogo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 45% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Botafogo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Palmeiras?
Record (4 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Botafogo and Palmeiras in?
Botafogo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.51
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
Palmeiras xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
6%
17.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.13 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Botafogo come into this having played 54 games, going 28W 13D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.91 PPG from 54 outings (30W 13D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.80 PPG, Palmeiras on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Botafogo's home form reads 16W 5D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.54 points per game from 26 outings (10W 10D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.65 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Palmeiras in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 28W 13D 13L in their last 54 games (1.80 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 30W 13D 11L in their last 54 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Palmeiras away?
Botafogo's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.04 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Palmeiras runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jun 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Botafogo
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 50%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Botafogo) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Palmeiras in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Botafogo's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Botafogo's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Palmeiras 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Palmeiras 1-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.53 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 26%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 44%, Palmeiras 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.80 PPG, Palmeiras 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.