Botafogo 0-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Botafogo welcome Flamengo to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Botafogo — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Botafogo, 0 for Flamengo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Botafogo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 44% versus Flamengo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 30% | Flamengo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.79 xG and Flamengo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.683 / defence 1.038 | Flamengo attack 1.154 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 0.897. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Botafogo games / 61 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 26% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 42%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Flamengo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 40% | Flamengo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 26% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Botafogo 0.79 / Flamengo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.683 / def 1.038 | Flamengo attack 1.154 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.307 / away 0.897 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Flamengo xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Flamengo kick off?
Botafogo vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Botafogo 0 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Botafogo vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Flamengo part of?
Botafogo vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 26% chance of winning, Flamengo a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Botafogo and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Flamengo in?
Botafogo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Flamengo (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Botafogo's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
26%
3.78
32%
3.15
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.86
1.07
Flamengo xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 16.7 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.07 for Flamengo, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo's recent record stands at 7W 6D 10L from 23 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 7L across 23 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Botafogo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 3W 3D 5L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Flamengo's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.65 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 12W 4D 7L in their last 23 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.09 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Flamengo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2024, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Botafogo
1
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 4, Flamengo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Botafogo 0-3 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 46%, Flamengo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Botafogo) and 46% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo have failed to score in 36% of games; Flamengo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Botafogo's recent matches and 54% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Botafogo's recent games and 46% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Flamengo tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Botafogo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Botafogo 0-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.79 xG and Flamengo 1.07 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.68 / defence 1.04 against Flamengo attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 26% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 42%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 30%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.