Botafogo 3-0 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Atletico-MG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Atletico-MG in Serie A (matchday 15). Kick-off: Monday 8 July 2024 at 01:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico-MG's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Atletico-MG's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Botafogo. A 0.50 PPG lead over Atletico-MG (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Botafogo's last 10 home games and Atletico-MG's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Botafogo's games and 70% of Atletico-MG's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Botafogo 0–1 Atletico-MG — a Atletico-MG win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 53% versus Atletico-MG 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 43% | Atletico-MG 45%). Note also that Atletico-MG surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Botafogo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.64 xG and Atletico-MG 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.105 / defence 0.971 | Atletico-MG attack 1.322 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.064. Atletico-MG have an above-average attack rating of 1.322, which lifts their away xG to 1.36. Data: built from Botafogo's last 52 games and Atletico-MG's last 51.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 42% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 30%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.36 | Draw 3.66 | Atletico-MG 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Botafogo's last 10 home games and Atletico-MG's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Botafogo 70% (last 10 home games) | Atletico-MG 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Monday 8 July 2024 at 01:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 42% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Botafogo 1.64 / Atletico-MG 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.105 / def 0.971 | Atletico-MG attack 1.322 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Atletico-MG xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Botafogo vs Atletico-MG FAQs
What time does Botafogo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 01:30 UK time on Monday 8 July 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Botafogo 3 - 0 Atletico-MG.
Where is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 42% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Botafogo and Atletico-MG will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Botafogo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (1.10) and Atletico-MG's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (1.32x) against Botafogo's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Botafogo's last 52 games and Atletico-MG's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.66
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Botafogo xG
Total xG
3.01
1.36
Atletico-MG xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Botafogo vs Atletico-MG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.36 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 13D 13L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Atletico-MG sit at 1.65 PPG from 51 outings (23W 15D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Botafogo against 1.65 for Atletico-MG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Botafogo's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico-MG have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 24 away games (11W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.41 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Atletico-MG in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
Botafogo (Home) vs Atletico-MG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Botafogo
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Botafogo vs Atletico-MG Form FAQs
What form are Botafogo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Botafogo's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.96 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won Botafogo 3-0 Atletico-MG on 8 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico-MG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Botafogo
2
Draws
3
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Botafogo vs Atletico-MG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Botafogo have won 5, Atletico-MG have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 November 2026: Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 50%, Atletico-MG 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Botafogo) and 46% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Botafogo vs Atletico-MG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Botafogo and Atletico-MG matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Botafogo's recent matches and 50% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Botafogo and Atletico-MG matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Botafogo's recent games and 46% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Atletico-MG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Botafogo's recent matches and 75% of Atletico-MG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Atletico-MG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Atletico-MG 3-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.64 xG and Atletico-MG 1.36 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico-MG landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Atletico-MG attack 1.32 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 42% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 30%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 43%, Atletico-MG 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.73 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.