Bahia 1-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Vasco DA Gama travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bahia at 1.30 PPG versus Vasco DA Gama's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Bahia have won 2, Vasco DA Gama 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 56% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 54% | Vasco DA Gama 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.77 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.170 / defence 0.928 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.167 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.021. Data: 72 Bahia games / 72 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 24%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Vasco DA Gama 4.17. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Bahia 40% | Vasco DA Gama 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Bahia 1.77 / Vasco DA Gama 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.170 / def 0.928 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.167 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Bahia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Vasco DA Gama xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 53% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bahia and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (5 meetings): Bahia 2W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 2W.
What form are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.17) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.28
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.88
1.11
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
24.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bahia and 1.11 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bahia come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 16D 26L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.28 PPG from 72 outings (26W 14D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bahia's home form reads 23W 6D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.89 points per game from 36 outings (9W 5D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.29 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 30W 16D 26L in their last 72 games (1.47 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 26W 14D 32L in their last 72 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Bahia's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.08 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bahia's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bahia
2
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
From 8 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Bahia 0-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 44%, Vasco DA Gama 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bahia) and 58% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bahia's recent matches and 47% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bahia's recent games and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Vasco DA Gama 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.77 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.11 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.17 / defence 1.06, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 53% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 24%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 54%, Vasco DA Gama 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.