Bahia 1-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Mirassol meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.59 xG and Mirassol 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.927 / defence 1.026 | Mirassol attack 0.881 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 0.897. Data: 40 Bahia games / 2 Mirassol games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 16%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Mirassol 6.25. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Bahia 1.59 / Mirassol 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.927 / def 1.026 | Mirassol attack 0.881 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.435 / away 0.897 • Poisson stance: Bahia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Mirassol xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Mirassol kick off?
Bahia vs Mirassol kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Mirassol?
Bahia 1 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Bahia vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Mirassol part of?
Bahia vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 53% chance of winning, Mirassol a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bahia and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Mirassol in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Bahia home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (0.93) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.88x) against Bahia's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
53%
1.88
31%
3.25
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.41
0.81
Mirassol xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
3%
30.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bahia and 0.81 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 5-1 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bahia
1
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Mirassol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Mirassol 1-2 Bahia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bahia and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 3, as Bahia and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.59 xG and Mirassol 0.81 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Mirassol attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 53% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 16%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.