Bahia 1-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gremio's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bahia against 1.30 for Gremio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Bahia 4W, Gremio 4W, 0D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 4–0 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Gremio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.40 xG and Gremio 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.042 / defence 1.058 | Gremio attack 0.737 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.102. Data: 52 Bahia games / 53 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 49% | Draw 28% | Gremio 23%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Gremio 4.35. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 30% | Gremio 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 49% | Draw 28% | Gremio 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Bahia 1.40 / Gremio 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.042 / def 1.058 | Gremio attack 0.737 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Bahia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Gremio xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Gremio kick off?
Bahia vs Gremio kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Gremio?
Bahia 1 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Bahia vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Gremio part of?
Bahia vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 49% chance of winning, Gremio a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bahia and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Gremio?
Record (8 meetings): Bahia 4W | Draws 0 | Gremio 4W.
What form are Bahia and Gremio in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.04x the league average against Gremio's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.74x) against Bahia's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.63
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.26
0.86
Gremio xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Bahia and 0.86 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bahia come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 17D 27L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.24 PPG from 76 outings (25W 19D 32L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Bahia against 1.24 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bahia's home form reads 25W 6D 7L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.87 points per game from 38 outings (7W 12D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Gremio in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Gremio away?
Bahia's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.13 PPG; Gremio away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Bahia or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gremio in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Bahia
1
Draws
4
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Gremio have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Gremio 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bahia) and 45% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gremio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 55% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bahia's recent games and 45% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Gremio tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gremio in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 16, as Bahia and Gremio drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.40 xG and Gremio 0.86 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Gremio attack 0.74 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 49% | Draw 28% | Gremio 23%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Gremio 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.49 PPG, Gremio 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.