Bahia 0-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Corinthians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Corinthians travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia in Serie A (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bahia — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bahia's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Corinthians have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Corinthians have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Bahia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Bahia, 1 for Corinthians and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Bahia 5–1 Corinthians — a Bahia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bahia trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Corinthians trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Corinthians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 54% | Corinthians 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.81 xG and Corinthians 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.138 / defence 0.885 | Corinthians attack 0.652 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.046. Corinthians's attack rating of 0.652 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Data: built from Bahia's last 55 games and Corinthians's last 55.
Result probabilities: Bahia 66% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 11%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.52 | Draw 4.25 | Corinthians 9.29. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (66%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bahia 50% (last 10 home games) | Corinthians 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, matchday 18 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 66% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Bahia 1.81 / Corinthians 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.138 / def 0.885 | Corinthians attack 0.652 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Bahia (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Corinthians xG
39%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bahia vs Corinthians FAQs
What time does Bahia vs Corinthians kick off?
Bahia vs Corinthians kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Corinthians?
Bahia 0 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Bahia vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Corinthians part of?
Bahia vs Corinthians is a Serie A fixture (matchday 18) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 66% chance of winning, Corinthians a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bahia and Corinthians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Bahia vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.14) and Corinthians's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bahia's last 55 games and Corinthians's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
66%
1.52
24%
4.25
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.42
0.60
Corinthians xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
2%
57.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bahia vs Corinthians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bahia and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Bahia and 0.60 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Corinthians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 21W 11D 23L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Corinthians's form line: 15W 20D 20L from 55 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.35 PPG, Corinthians on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 27 home games (15W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Corinthians have gone 6W 6D 15L from their last 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.11 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
Bahia (Home) vs Corinthians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bahia
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Bahia vs Corinthians Form FAQs
What form are Bahia and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 21W 11D 23L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 15W 20D 20L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Corinthians away?
Bahia's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.85 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Nov 2023, when Bahia won Corinthians 1-5 Bahia.
Bahia's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bahia
4
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Bahia vs Corinthians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Corinthians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bahia have won 3, Corinthians have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Corinthians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Bahia 1-1 Corinthians.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 56%, Corinthians 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bahia) and 33% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Corinthians in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bahia vs Corinthians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bahia and Corinthians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bahia's recent matches and 33% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bahia and Corinthians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bahia's recent games and 33% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Corinthians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Bahia's recent matches and 74% of Corinthians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Corinthians defy the odds to beat Bahia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Bahia 0-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.81 xG and Corinthians 0.60 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bahia fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Corinthians attack 0.65 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 66% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 11%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Corinthians win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 54%, Corinthians 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Corinthians's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.35 PPG, Corinthians 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Corinthians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.