Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense host Vasco DA Gama at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 July 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Goianiense stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Goianiense's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 games at Estádio Antônio Accioly this term (0.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Vasco DA Gama are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Goianiense in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vasco DA Gama in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 62% versus Vasco DA Gama 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Goianiense 50% | Vasco DA Gama 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.12 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.738 / defence 1.467 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.884 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.081. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Atletico Goianiense games / 54 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 28% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 41%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Vasco DA Gama 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 71% | Vasco DA Gama 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Jul 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 28% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.12 / Vasco DA Gama 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.738 / def 1.467 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.884 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Vasco DA Gama xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 17 July 2024 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Atletico Goianiense 0 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 28% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.74x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
28%
3.55
31%
3.27
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.53
1.40
Vasco DA Gama xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.40 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Goianiense's recent record stands at 2W 5D 9L from 16 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 8L across 16 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vasco DA Gama by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Goianiense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atletico Goianiense have managed 0W 2D 5L from 7 games — 0.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 1W 0D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.19 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atletico Goianiense have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 games (0.69 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Vasco DA Gama's away record (0.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 0.29 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama?
From 2 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Vasco DA Gama 2-2 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 71%, Vasco DA Gama 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Atletico Goianiense and 57% for Vasco DA Gama. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 29% of games; Vasco DA Gama in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Atletico Goianiense's games and 57% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Atletico Goianiense's matches and 57% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Atletico Goianiense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Atletico Goianiense 0-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.12 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.40 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Goianiense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.74 / defence 1.47 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 28% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 41%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 50%, Vasco DA Gama 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasco DA Gama arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.