America Mineiro 0-3 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
America Mineiro and Coritiba meet at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 8 November 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, America Mineiro have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coritiba have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Coritiba are 0.50 PPG clear of America Mineiro in recent Serie A fixtures (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — America Mineiro have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Coritiba in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — America Mineiro lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Coritiba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Coritiba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 57% versus Coritiba 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (America Mineiro 51% | Coritiba 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.97 xG and Coritiba 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.931 / defence 1.433 | Coritiba attack 1.209 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.083. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Coritiba have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 America Mineiro games / 70 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 41% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 37%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | Coritiba 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is America Mineiro at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coritiba (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on America Mineiro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 60% | Coritiba 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Nov 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 41% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG America Mineiro 1.97 / Coritiba 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.931 / def 1.433 | Coritiba attack 1.209 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Coritiba xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Coritiba kick off?
America Mineiro vs Coritiba kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 8 November 2023 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
America Mineiro 0 - 3 Coritiba.
Where is America Mineiro vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Coritiba part of?
America Mineiro vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 41% chance of winning, Coritiba a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both America Mineiro and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Coritiba?
Record (3 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 2W.
What form are America Mineiro and Coritiba in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.93) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (1.21x) against America Mineiro's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
41%
2.43
22%
4.65
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
3.85
1.88
Coritiba xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.72
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
6%
15.90
5%
19.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for America Mineiro and 1.88 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 19W 17D 34L from 70 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Coritiba, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 41L across 70 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for America Mineiro against 0.93 for Coritiba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 13W 6D 16L from 35 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coritiba's away record stands at 4W 4D 27L across 35 trips, a 0.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
America Mineiro are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.06 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Coritiba in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 19W 17D 34L in their last 70 games (1.06 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 18W 11D 41L in their last 70 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Coritiba away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.29 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Coritiba have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coritiba won 0-3 on 8 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, America Mineiro have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
0
Draws
3
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Coritiba?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Coritiba have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2023, when America Mineiro 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 51%, Coritiba 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 49% for America Mineiro and 71% for Coritiba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro have failed to score in 26% of games; Coritiba in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of America Mineiro's games and 69% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is America Mineiro vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of America Mineiro's matches and 71% of Coritiba's.
Do America Mineiro and Coritiba tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Coritiba run riot with a 0-3 hammering of America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat America Mineiro 0-3 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.97 xG and Coritiba 1.88 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. America Mineiro fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Coritiba outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.93 / defence 1.43 against Coritiba attack 1.21 / defence 1.56, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 41% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 37%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 51%, Coritiba 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coritiba's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.06 PPG, Coritiba 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.