Zulte Waregem 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 January 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Elindus Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
OH Leuven have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, OH Leuven are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zulte Waregem register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, OH Leuven in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Zulte Waregem, 0 for OH Leuven and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
OH Leuven half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 73% and OH Leuven 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zulte Waregem 73% | OH Leuven 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and OH Leuven 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.008 / defence 1.449 | OH Leuven attack 0.943 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.508. OH Leuven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Zulte Waregem games / 23 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 31% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 47%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | OH Leuven 2.13. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 70% | OH Leuven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jan 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 31% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.64 / OH Leuven 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.008 / def 1.449 | OH Leuven attack 0.943 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
2.06
OH Leuven xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 26 January 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven part of?
Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 31% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 1 | OH Leuven 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against OH Leuven's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.94x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
31%
3.26
22%
4.56
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.70
2.06
OH Leuven xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
13%
7.85
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
4%
25.61
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 2.06 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 5D 11L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OH Leuven sit at 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.27 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 3W 2D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, OH Leuven have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.55 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; OH Leuven in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 5D 11L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or OH Leuven away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.00 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 2-5 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
3
Draws
2
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, OH Leuven have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when OH Leuven 1-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Zulte Waregem, 73% for OH Leuven — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Zulte Waregem and 73% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Zulte Waregem's games and 73% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 73% of OH Leuven's.
Do Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem and OH Leuven finished level at 1-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and OH Leuven 2.06 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.01 / defence 1.45 against OH Leuven attack 0.94 / defence 1.36, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 31% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 47%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 73%, OH Leuven 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.05 PPG, OH Leuven 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.