Zulte Waregem 1-0 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host Dender at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Elindus Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Dender's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Zulte Waregem's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 0 for Dender and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dender in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 65% and Dender 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 60% | Dender 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.20 xG and Dender 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.968 / defence 1.110 | Dender attack 0.891 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.245. Data: 23 Zulte Waregem games / 53 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 28% | Dender 36%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Dender 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Zulte Waregem 50% | Dender 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 28% | Dender 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.20 / Dender 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.968 / def 1.110 | Dender attack 0.891 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Dender (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Dender xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Dender kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Dender kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 0 Dender.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Dender part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Dender is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 35% chance of winning, Dender a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Dender?
Record (3 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 2 | Dender 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Dender in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dender (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.97) and Dender's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.53
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.43
1.23
Dender xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.23 for Dender, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 52 games, going 24W 14D 14L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dender sit at 0.88 PPG from 52 outings (10W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Dender — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 15W 4D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Dender have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (4W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.10 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Dender in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 24W 14D 14L in their last 52 games (1.65 PPG), while Dender have gone 10W 16D 26L in their last 52 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Dender away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.96 PPG; Dender away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zulte Waregem go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Zulte Waregem won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Dender specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 4, Dender have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-1 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Dender?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zulte Waregem at 64%, Dender at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Zulte Waregem and 68% for Dender. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Zulte Waregem's games and 72% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 68% of Dender's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Dender tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dender in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Dender 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Dender 1-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.20 xG and Dender 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dender landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Dender attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 28% | Dender 36%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, Dender 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Dender's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.