Zulte Waregem 1-3 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charleroi at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Charleroi meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 4W 2D 4L at Elindus Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Charleroi (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Zulte Waregem, 1.30 for Charleroi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Zulte Waregem, 1 for Charleroi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 58% versus Charleroi 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 60% | Charleroi 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.26 xG and Charleroi 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.928 / defence 1.142 | Charleroi attack 0.896 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.264. Data: 38 Zulte Waregem games / 38 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 38%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Charleroi 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Zulte Waregem 40% | Charleroi 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.26 / Charleroi 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.928 / def 1.142 | Charleroi attack 0.896 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Charleroi xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 3 Charleroi.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 36% chance of winning, Charleroi a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.93x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.90x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.75
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.55
1.29
Charleroi xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.29 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 9W 9D 20L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 17W 6D 15L from 38 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 9W 2D 8L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.53 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 17W 6D 15L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.16 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Charleroi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zulte Waregem have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 58%, Charleroi 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Zulte Waregem and 74% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 47% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 74% of Charleroi's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Charleroi tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Zulte Waregem 1-3 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.26 xG and Charleroi 1.29 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 38%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, Charleroi 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.