Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Stade Joseph Marien to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Marien this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Dender have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Dender have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Dender's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union St. Gilloise lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Dender — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 46% versus Dender 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | Dender 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.59 xG and Dender 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.232 / defence 0.636 | Dender attack 0.766 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.287. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.636 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Union St. Gilloise games / 58 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Dender 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Dender 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 37% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.59 / Dender 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.232 / def 0.636 | Dender attack 0.766 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Dender xG
37%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Dender kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Dender kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 0 Dender.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Dender is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 61% chance of winning, Dender a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
Record (3 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 1 | Dender 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Dender in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Dender (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (1.23) and Dender's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.77x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
61%
1.65
25%
3.99
14%
7.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.22
0.63
Dender xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
7.01
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
3%
34.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.63 for Dender, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 41W 20D 7L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Dender's form line: 14W 22D 32L from 68 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.53 PPG from 34 outings (27W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dender have gone 6W 10D 18L from 34 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.12 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Dender in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 41W 20D 7L in their last 68 games (2.10 PPG), while Dender have gone 14W 22D 32L in their last 68 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Dender away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.53 PPG; Dender away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Dender in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-1 on 1 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
From 4 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Dender have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 41%, Dender 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union St. Gilloise) and 65% (Dender). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Dender in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Dender?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 65% of Dender's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 65% of Dender's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Dender tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dender in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Dender 2-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.59 xG and Dender 0.63 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.64 against Dender attack 0.77 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 44%, Dender 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dender's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.