Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Charleroi to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Mariën this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charleroi — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 1.50 PPG, Charleroi 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Charleroi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 3–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 54% | Charleroi 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG and Charleroi 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.041 / defence 0.908 | Charleroi attack 1.049 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.223. Data: 35 Union St. Gilloise games / 35 Charleroi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 51% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 24%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 4.17. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Charleroi 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 51% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.78 / Charleroi 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.041 / def 0.908 | Charleroi attack 1.049 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Charleroi xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 July 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 51% chance of winning, Charleroi a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.07
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.95
1.17
Charleroi xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.17 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 26W 7D 8L from 41 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 13L across 41 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 9W 4D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.66 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 26W 7D 8L in their last 41 games (2.07 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 10D 13L in their last 41 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Charleroi away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.80 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Charleroi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Charleroi 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 40%, Charleroi 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Union St. Gilloise and 80% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 55% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 80% of Charleroi's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Charleroi tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 1-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG and Charleroi 1.17 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 51% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 24%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 54%, Charleroi 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.