Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Joseph Mariën this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Antwerp trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 52% versus Antwerp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 63% | Antwerp 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.79 xG and Antwerp 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.098 / defence 0.804 | Antwerp attack 1.049 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.373. Data: 53 Union St. Gilloise games / 53 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 23% | Antwerp 25%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Antwerp 4.00. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Antwerp 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 23% | Antwerp 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.79 / Antwerp 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.098 / def 0.804 | Antwerp attack 1.049 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Antwerp xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 52% chance of winning, Antwerp a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.10x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.30
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.95
1.16
Antwerp xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
4%
24.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.16 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 39W 9D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp's form line: 32W 10D 17L from 59 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.14 PPG, Antwerp on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 1.93 PPG from 29 outings (17W 5D 7L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 15W 4D 10L from 29 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.58 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Antwerp in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 39W 9D 11L in their last 59 games (2.14 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 32W 10D 17L in their last 59 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.93 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Antwerp in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 48%, Antwerp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Union St. Gilloise) and 48% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Antwerp in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 52% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 48% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 2-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.79 xG and Antwerp 1.16 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.10 / defence 0.80 against Antwerp attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 23% | Antwerp 25%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 63%, Antwerp 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antwerp's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.14 PPG, Antwerp 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.