Union St. Gilloise 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 6 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Antwerp trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Antwerp 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 56% | Antwerp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.30 xG and Antwerp 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.085 / defence 0.923 | Antwerp attack 0.840 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.308. Data: 34 Union St. Gilloise games / 34 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 28% | Antwerp 29%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Antwerp 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Antwerp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 28% | Antwerp 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.30 / Antwerp 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.085 / def 0.923 | Antwerp attack 0.840 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Antwerp xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 43% chance of winning, Antwerp a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.08x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.59
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.32
1.01
Antwerp xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.01 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 26W 6D 7L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Antwerp's form line: 19W 7D 13L from 39 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antwerp.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 10W 2D 7L from 19 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.46 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 26W 6D 7L in their last 39 games (2.15 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 19W 7D 13L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.89 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Antwerp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 42%, Antwerp 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union St. Gilloise) and 47% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Antwerp in 37%; Union St. Gilloise have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 58% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 47% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Union St. Gilloise 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Union St. Gilloise 0-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.30 xG and Antwerp 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Antwerp attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 28% | Antwerp 29%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 56%, Antwerp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.64. Form was overturned, with Antwerp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.