Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Marien to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 9W 1D 0L at Stade Joseph Marien — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union St. Gilloise at 1.70 PPG versus Antwerp's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Union St. Gilloise's 30% rate and Antwerp's 0% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Union St. Gilloise hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Antwerp, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Antwerp trading profile (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 45% versus Antwerp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 43% | Antwerp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.24 xG and Antwerp 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.193 / defence 0.552 | Antwerp attack 0.815 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.313. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.552 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Union St. Gilloise games / 55 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 17%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Antwerp 5.88. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Antwerp's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Antwerp 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 32% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.24 / Antwerp 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.193 / def 0.552 | Antwerp attack 0.815 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Antwerp xG
32%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 52% chance of winning, Antwerp a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Record (9 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 5W | Draws 3 | Antwerp 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Antwerp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.19x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.5%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
52%
1.92
31%
3.25
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
1.83
0.59
Antwerp xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 11.7 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.59 for Antwerp, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 39W 19D 7L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp's form line: 21W 19D 25L from 65 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antwerp.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.48 PPG from 31 outings (24W 5D 2L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 8W 12D 11L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.29 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 39W 19D 7L in their last 65 games (2.09 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.48 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Antwerp in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 36%, Antwerp 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union St. Gilloise) and 23% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Antwerp in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 42% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 23% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Antwerp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 2-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.24 xG and Antwerp 0.59 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.19 / defence 0.55 against Antwerp attack 0.81 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 17%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 43%, Antwerp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.