Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 43%, yet in-form Antwerp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Mariën than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Antwerp — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise have won 2, Antwerp 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Antwerp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Antwerp trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 58% versus Antwerp 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 56% | Antwerp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.34 xG and Antwerp 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.969 / defence 0.867 | Antwerp attack 1.066 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 0.983. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Union St. Gilloise games / 45 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 36% | Antwerp 22%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Antwerp 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antwerp (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Antwerp 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 36% | Antwerp 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.34 / Antwerp 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.969 / def 0.867 | Antwerp attack 1.066 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.793 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Antwerp xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 43% chance of winning, Antwerp a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Record (5 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 2 | Antwerp 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Antwerp (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 0.97x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
43%
2.33
36%
2.81
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.25
0.91
Antwerp xG
2.33
43%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.91 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 29W 17D 9L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp's form line: 24W 13D 18L from 55 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 1.89 PPG, Antwerp on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.11 PPG from 27 outings (17W 6D 4L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.62 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 29W 17D 9L in their last 55 games (1.89 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.11 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Antwerp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 59%, Antwerp 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Union St. Gilloise) and 44% (Antwerp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Antwerp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 44% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 44% of Antwerp's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Antwerp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.34 xG and Antwerp 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.97 / defence 0.87 against Antwerp attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 36% | Antwerp 22%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 56%, Antwerp 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 1.89 PPG, Antwerp 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.