Standard Liege 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Maurice Dufrasnestadion plays host to Standard Liege versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Standard Liege have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege's home record at Maurice Dufrasnestadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Union St. Gilloise arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Union St. Gilloise hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Standard Liege — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 33% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Standard Liege 34% | Union St. Gilloise 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.82 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.816 / defence 1.029 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.834 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.302. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Standard Liege games / 54 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 26% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 42%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Union St. Gilloise 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 40% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 26% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Standard Liege 0.82 / Union St. Gilloise 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.816 / def 1.029 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.834 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Standard Liege 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 26% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (9 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 7W.
What form are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.82) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (0.83x) against Standard Liege's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
26%
3.81
32%
3.16
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
1.94
1.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 16.1 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.12 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 19W 19D 26L from 64 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 39W 18D 7L across 64 games — 2.11 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 11W 10D 11L from 32 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 14W 13D 5L across 32 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liege are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.73 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 19W 19D 26L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 39W 18D 7L in their last 64 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.34 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Standard Liege
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Standard Liege 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 41%, Union St. Gilloise 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Standard Liege) and 38% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 41%; Standard Liege have failed to score in 38% of games; Union St. Gilloise in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Standard Liege's recent games and 38% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 25, as Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.82 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.83 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 26% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 42%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 34%, Union St. Gilloise 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.