St. Truiden 0-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St. Truiden face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union St. Gilloise make the trip to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Union St. Gilloise hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 57% and Union St. Gilloise 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 46% | Union St. Gilloise 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.73 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.075 / defence 1.404 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.121 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.241. Data: 34 St. Truiden games / 34 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 35% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 44%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Union St. Gilloise 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Union St. Gilloise 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 35% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG St. Truiden 1.73 / Union St. Gilloise 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.075 / def 1.404 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.121 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Union St. Gilloise xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
St. Truiden 0 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 35% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (3 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 3W.
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.12x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
35%
2.87
22%
4.64
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.69
1.95
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
14%
7.05
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
5%
20.22
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.95 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 13W 15D 16L from 44 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 7L across 44 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 10W 7D 5L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 12W 6D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.98 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 13W 15D 16L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 27W 10D 7L in their last 44 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.68 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 54%, Union St. Gilloise 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (St. Truiden) and 59% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of St. Truiden's games and 59% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of St. Truiden's recent games and 59% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at St. Truiden's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.73 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.95 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.07 / defence 1.40 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 35% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 44%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 46%, Union St. Gilloise 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.