St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 2, OH Leuven 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 68% versus OH Leuven 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 61% | OH Leuven 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.42 xG and OH Leuven 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.075 / defence 0.937 | OH Leuven attack 0.790 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.155. Data: 50 St. Truiden games / 50 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 27% | OH Leuven 23%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | OH Leuven 4.35. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 50% | OH Leuven 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 27% | OH Leuven 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG St. Truiden 1.42 / OH Leuven 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.075 / def 0.937 | OH Leuven attack 0.790 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.85
OH Leuven xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
St. Truiden 1 - 0 OH Leuven.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 50% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
Record (9 meetings): St. Truiden 2W | Draws 4 | OH Leuven 3W.
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.07x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.69
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.27
0.85
OH Leuven xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.85 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 22W 14D 20L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven's form line: 13W 20D 23L from 56 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.43 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (14W 8D 6L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 5W 8D 15L from 28 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 0.95 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 22W 14D 20L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 13W 20D 23L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.79 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and OH Leuven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 64%, OH Leuven 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (St. Truiden) and 39% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 43% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of St. Truiden's recent games and 39% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out OH Leuven 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat OH Leuven 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.42 xG and OH Leuven 0.85 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. OH Leuven landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against OH Leuven attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 50% | Draw 27% | OH Leuven 23%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 61%, OH Leuven 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
OH Leuven's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.43 PPG, OH Leuven 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.