St. Truiden 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 17:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, St. Truiden have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, OH Leuven stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
OH Leuven's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for St. Truiden, 1 for OH Leuven and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended St. Truiden 0–4 OH Leuven — a OH Leuven win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 46% versus OH Leuven 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 42% | OH Leuven 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: St. Truiden surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while OH Leuven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.58 xG and OH Leuven 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.794 / defence 0.977 | OH Leuven attack 0.921 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.303. St. Truiden's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.58. OH Leuven's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St. Truiden's projected output up. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 50 games and OH Leuven's last 50.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 44% | Draw 30% | OH Leuven 26%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.25 | Draw 3.36 | OH Leuven 3.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (St. Truiden's last 10 home games and OH Leuven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 30% (last 10 home games) | OH Leuven 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 44% | Draw 30% | OH Leuven 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG St. Truiden 1.58 / OH Leuven 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.794 / def 0.977 | OH Leuven attack 0.921 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.17
OH Leuven xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs OH Leuven FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 44% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.79x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 50 games and OH Leuven's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.36
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.75
1.17
OH Leuven xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
5%
18.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.17 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 16W 16D 18L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 16W 12D 22L from 50 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.28 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 25 home games (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 7W 5D 13L from their last 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.52 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs OH Leuven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 16W 16D 18L in their last 50 games (1.28 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.32 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won OH Leuven 4-0 St. Truiden.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
3
Draws
4
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs OH Leuven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: St. Truiden 1-2 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 40%, OH Leuven 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (St. Truiden) and 64% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs OH Leuven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and OH Leuven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 68% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and OH Leuven matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of St. Truiden's recent games and 64% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 76% of OH Leuven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and OH Leuven finished level at 1-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.58 xG and OH Leuven 1.17 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.79 / defence 0.98 against OH Leuven attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 44% | Draw 30% | OH Leuven 26%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 42%, OH Leuven 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.28 PPG, OH Leuven 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.