St. Truiden 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Charleroi at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 3W 3D 4L at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.10 PPG versus Charleroi's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for St. Truiden, 2 for Charleroi and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 45% versus Charleroi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | Charleroi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.06 xG and Charleroi 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.751 / defence 0.992 | Charleroi attack 0.622 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.260. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 St. Truiden games / 51 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 39% | Draw 38% | Charleroi 23%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.56 | Draw 2.63 | Charleroi 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 40% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 39% | Draw 38% | Charleroi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG St. Truiden 1.06 / Charleroi 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.751 / def 0.992 | Charleroi attack 0.622 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Charleroi xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Charleroi kick off?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
St. Truiden 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is St. Truiden vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Charleroi part of?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 39% chance of winning, Charleroi a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both St. Truiden and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Record (5 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.75x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
39%
2.59
38%
2.62
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
1.84
0.78
Charleroi xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.78 for Charleroi, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 16W 16D 19L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 18W 12D 21L from 51 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.25 PPG, Charleroi on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.24 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 16W 16D 19L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Charleroi away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.32 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Charleroi have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 40%, Charleroi 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (St. Truiden) and 52% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 36%; St. Truiden have failed to score in 40% of games; Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 52% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of St. Truiden's recent games and 52% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Charleroi tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Charleroi 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.06 xG and Charleroi 0.78 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Charleroi attack 0.62 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 39% | Draw 38% | Charleroi 23%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, Charleroi 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.25 PPG, Charleroi 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.