St. Truiden 2-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Antwerp travel to Stadion Stayen to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 games at Stadion Stayen this term (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.71 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Stayen this season.
Antwerp — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Antwerp are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 64% and Antwerp 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 57% | Antwerp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.09 xG and Antwerp 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.858 / defence 1.354 | Antwerp attack 0.890 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.445. Data: 14 St. Truiden games / 14 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 53%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Antwerp 1.89. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 86% | Antwerp 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG St. Truiden 1.09 / Antwerp 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.858 / def 1.354 | Antwerp attack 0.890 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Antwerp xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Antwerp kick off?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is St. Truiden vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Antwerp part of?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 24% chance of winning, Antwerp a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St. Truiden and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Antwerp (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
24%
4.24
24%
4.23
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.83
1.74
Antwerp xG
4.24
24%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
17%
5.71
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
4%
24.21
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.74 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 3L across 14 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 1W 2D 4L from 7 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.29 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Antwerp's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.79 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Antwerp in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 8W 3D 3L in their last 14 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 0.71 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Antwerp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Antwerp have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — St. Truiden at 86%, Antwerp at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for St. Truiden and 57% for Antwerp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of St. Truiden's games and 71% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of St. Truiden's matches and 57% of Antwerp's.
Do St. Truiden and Antwerp tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Antwerp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Antwerp 2-1 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.09 xG and Antwerp 1.74 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Antwerp attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 53%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a St. Truiden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 57%, Antwerp 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with St. Truiden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.