St. Truiden 0-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Anderlecht travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.30 PPG versus Anderlecht's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. St. Truiden's 30% rate and Anderlecht's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 0, Anderlecht 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 40% versus Anderlecht 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | Anderlecht 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.35 xG and Anderlecht 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.944 / defence 0.828 | Anderlecht attack 0.898 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.206. Data: 36 St. Truiden games / 35 Anderlecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 47% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 25%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Anderlecht 4.00. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 30% | Anderlecht 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 47% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG St. Truiden 1.35 / Anderlecht 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.944 / def 0.828 | Anderlecht attack 0.898 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Anderlecht xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kick off?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
St. Truiden 0 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht part of?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 47% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both St. Truiden and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Record (2 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.59
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.24
0.90
Anderlecht xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.90 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 8D 14L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (14W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.34 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 7W 3D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.43 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 14W 7D 14L in their last 35 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Anderlecht away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.41 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.41 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Anderlecht have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 35%, Anderlecht 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (St. Truiden) and 41% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 41%; St. Truiden have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 41% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of St. Truiden's recent games and 41% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Anderlecht tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Anderlecht defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 0-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.35 xG and Anderlecht 0.90 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Anderlecht attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 47% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 25%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Anderlecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, Anderlecht 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Anderlecht's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.34 PPG, Anderlecht 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.