SK Beveren vs St. Truiden – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host St. Truiden at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's home record at Freethiel Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SK Beveren at 1.90 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 51% versus St. Truiden 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 65% | St. Truiden 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.25 xG and St. Truiden 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / defence 0.986 | St. Truiden attack 1.354 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. SK Beveren's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 SK Beveren games / 35 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 26% | Draw 23% | St. Truiden 52%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | St. Truiden 1.92. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: SK Beveren 30% | St. Truiden 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 26% | Draw 23% | St. Truiden 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG SK Beveren 1.25 / St. Truiden 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / def 0.986 | St. Truiden attack 1.354 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.85
St. Truiden xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs St. Truiden kick off?
SK Beveren vs St. Truiden is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs St. Truiden part of?
SK Beveren vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 26% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SK Beveren and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and St. Truiden in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 0.80x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
26%
3.88
23%
4.40
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.10
1.85
St. Truiden xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
4%
24.70
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.85 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 30W 4D 3L from 37 games, a 2.54 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 20W 5D 12L across 37 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 17W 1D 0L from 18 games — 2.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 9W 2D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.68 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 30W 4D 3L in their last 37 games (2.54 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 20W 5D 12L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or St. Truiden away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.89 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.61 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 24%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 39%, St. Truiden 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 67% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 61% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SK Beveren's matches and 67% of St. Truiden's.
Do SK Beveren and St. Truiden tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.