Oostende 0-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oostende vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees St. Truiden travel to Diaz Arena to take on Oostende. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oostende stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Oostende's home record at Diaz Arena: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St. Truiden — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oostende have won 0, St. Truiden 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oostende in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 43% versus St. Truiden 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 54% | St. Truiden 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 1.02 xG and St. Truiden 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.822 / defence 1.591 | St. Truiden attack 0.753 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.375. Data: 28 Oostende games / 28 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oostende 23% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 52%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | St. Truiden 1.92. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Oostende 70% | St. Truiden 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 23% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Oostende 1.02 / St. Truiden 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.822 / def 1.591 | St. Truiden attack 0.753 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
1.65
St. Truiden xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs St. Truiden kick off?
Oostende vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Oostende 0 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Oostende vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs St. Truiden part of?
Oostende vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 23% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Oostende and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): Oostende 0W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Oostende and St. Truiden in?
Oostende (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Oostende's attack rating (0.82) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Oostende's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
23%
4.28
25%
4.08
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Oostende xG
Total xG
2.67
1.65
St. Truiden xG
4.28
23%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
22.23
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Oostende and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Oostende and 1.65 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oostende come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 4D 15L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (11W 4D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oostende on 1.11 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Oostende's home form reads 5W 1D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.43 points per game from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Oostende are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.14 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oostende and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 9W 4D 15L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 11W 4D 13L in their last 28 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 1.14 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
St. Truiden have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when St. Truiden won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oostende's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oostende
2
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and St. Truiden?
From 4 meetings on record, Oostende have won 0, St. Truiden have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when St. Truiden 5-0 Oostende.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 57%, St. Truiden 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Oostende) and 36% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 36%; Oostende have failed to score in 29% of games; St. Truiden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oostende play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Oostende's recent matches and 43% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oostende vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Oostende's recent games and 36% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oostende and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Oostende have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oostende's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oostende and St. Truiden finished level at 0-0 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 1.02 xG and St. Truiden 1.65 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oostende fell 1.0 short of their projected output. St. Truiden landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.82 / defence 1.59 against St. Truiden attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 23% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 52%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 54%, St. Truiden 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oostende 1.11 PPG, St. Truiden 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oostende (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.