Oostende 0-3 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Oostende take on Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oostende and Charleroi meet at Diaz Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 0.93 xG and Charleroi 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Charleroi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 0.677. Data: 0 Oostende games / 0 Charleroi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Oostende 36% | Draw 42% | Charleroi 21%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 2.78 | Draw 2.38 | Charleroi 4.76. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Charleroi's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 21% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 36% | Draw 42% | Charleroi 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 33% | xG Oostende 0.93 / Charleroi 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Charleroi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.953 / away 0.677 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Charleroi xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs Charleroi kick off?
Oostende vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Charleroi?
Oostende 0 - 3 Charleroi.
Where is Oostende vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Charleroi part of?
Oostende vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 36% chance of winning, Charleroi a 21% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Oostende and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oostende and Charleroi in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oostende's attack rating (0.85) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.85x) against Oostende's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.74
42%
2.36
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Oostende xG
Total xG
1.59
0.66
Charleroi xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.36
42%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
8%
12.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.3 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.9%.
How many goals are Oostende and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Oostende and 0.66 for Charleroi, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Pre-Season
Charleroi
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 0-3 on 24 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oostende have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oostende
1
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Charleroi?
From 4 meetings on record, Oostende have won 1, Charleroi have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Oostende 0-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oostende.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Oostende 0-3 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 0.93 xG and Charleroi 0.66 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oostende fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 36% | Draw 42% | Charleroi 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.