OH Leuven 0-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as OH Leuven face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
OH Leuven welcome Union St. Gilloise to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, OH Leuven have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, OH Leuven have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union St. Gilloise stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Union St. Gilloise's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for OH Leuven.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended OH Leuven 1–5 Union St. Gilloise — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 59% and Union St. Gilloise 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 56% | Union St. Gilloise 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OH Leuven surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Union St. Gilloise have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.919 / defence 0.853 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.351 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.242. Union St. Gilloise bring a tight defence (rating 0.783, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling OH Leuven's projected output down. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack rating of 1.351, which lifts their away xG to 1.43. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 61 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 61.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 29% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 44%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.41 | Draw 3.80 | Union St. Gilloise 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 50% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 29% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG OH Leuven 1.11 / Union St. Gilloise 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.919 / def 0.853 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.351 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
OH Leuven 0 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 29% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.92) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 61 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
29%
3.41
26%
3.80
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.54
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.43 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 19W 17D 25L from 61 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 42W 12D 7L across 61 games — 2.26 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 11W 9D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 20W 8D 2L across their last 30 away games, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OH Leuven are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 70%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
OH Leuven (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 19W 17D 25L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 42W 12D 7L in their last 61 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.40 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-0 OH Leuven.
OH Leuven's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
OH Leuven
3
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — OH Leuven at 57%, Union St. Gilloise at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (OH Leuven) and 63% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OH Leuven have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of OH Leuven's games and 77% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of OH Leuven's matches and 63% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 87% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat OH Leuven 0-2 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.35 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 29% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 44%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 56%, Union St. Gilloise 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.