OH Leuven 1-3 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Seraing United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion plays host to OH Leuven versus Seraing United in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OH Leuven have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this season: 3W 3D 1L from 7 home games — 1.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Seraing United (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Seraing United have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for OH Leuven, 1.00 for Seraing United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Seraing United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 71% and Seraing United 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 50% | Seraing United 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.97 xG and Seraing United 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.975 / defence 0.991 | Seraing United attack 0.656 / defence 1.648. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.441. Seraing United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.648 — this is suppressing OH Leuven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 OH Leuven games / 14 Seraing United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 61% | Draw 22% | Seraing United 17%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Seraing United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to OH Leuven (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 71% | Seraing United 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Seraing United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 61% | Draw 22% | Seraing United 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG OH Leuven 1.97 / Seraing United 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.975 / def 0.991 | Seraing United attack 0.656 / def 1.648 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Seraing United xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Seraing United kick off?
OH Leuven vs Seraing United kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Seraing United?
OH Leuven 1 - 3 Seraing United.
Where is OH Leuven vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Seraing United part of?
OH Leuven vs Seraing United is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 61% chance of winning, Seraing United a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OH Leuven and Seraing United will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Seraing United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Seraing United in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Seraing United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Seraing United's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Seraing United's attack (0.66x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.65
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.91
0.94
Seraing United xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
41.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.94 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Seraing United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, OH Leuven have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 3W 8D 3L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seraing United's form line: 4W 1D 9L from 14 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for OH Leuven against 0.93 for Seraing United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, OH Leuven have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — OH Leuven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Seraing United have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Seraing United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 1.14 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Seraing United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Seraing United in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 3W 8D 3L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 4W 1D 9L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Seraing United away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.71 PPG; Seraing United away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 5-0 on 11 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Seraing United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
OH Leuven
1
Draws
2
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Seraing United?
From 4 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 1, Seraing United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Seraing United last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Seraing United 2-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Seraing United?
Seraing United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Seraing United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 71%, Seraing United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for OH Leuven and 86% for Seraing United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Seraing United in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Seraing United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of OH Leuven's games and 43% of Seraing United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Seraing United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of OH Leuven's matches and 86% of Seraing United's.
Seraing United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seraing United beat OH Leuven 1-3 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.97 xG and Seraing United 0.94 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Seraing United outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Seraing United attack 0.66 / defence 1.65, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 61% | Draw 22% | Seraing United 17%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Seraing United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 50%, Seraing United 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Seraing United's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.21 PPG, Seraing United 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seraing United win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.